Even well-designed, scientifically rigorous research programs can struggle to translate effort and investment into meaningful outcomes.
Often, the problem is not the quality of the individual projects.
It is that the constraints limiting progress have not been clearly identified, or that intervention is occurring at points where it has relatively little influence on the overall system.
Research, technology and investment programmes often involve:
competing technical recommendations;
uncertain assumptions;
incomplete or uneven evidence;
several possible interventions;
limited time, capital and specialist capacity; and
pressure to proceed before the risks are understood.
Without a structured decision process, organisations may continue investing in the most visible problem, the most familiar technology or the most strongly advocated option rather than the intervention most likely to improve the outcome.
Strategic Decision Support converts diagnosis and evidence into a defensible course of action.
This FCB Advisory Services flagship activity determine which of these variables can be influenced and hence become decision levers. Research and investment can then be focused on the decision levers most likely to change the outcome.
A bioeconomy project can involve dozens or even hundreds of variables: crop yield, moisture, harvest losses, transport distance, feedstock composition, conversion efficiency, energy demand, product yield, equipment performance and many more.
The problem is that they do not all matter equally.
FCB Bioeconomy-CDLA — Critical Decision Lever Analysis — identifies the relatively small number of factors that have the greatest influence on the outcome and determines which of those can realistically be changed.
| Decision situation | Strategic question |
|---|---|
| Research programme | Which questions, experiments and capabilities deserve priority? |
| Technology development | What evidence is required before scale-up or further investment? |
| Biomass or feedstock project | Which biological, logistics or processing assumptions control viability? |
| Investment assessment | Which uncertainties could materially change the investment case? |
| Underperforming programme | Should the organisation continue, redirect or stop? |
| Multiple technical options | Which pathway provides the strongest balance of value, feasibility and risk? |
| Conflicting specialist advice | Which recommendation best improves the performance of the system as a whole? |
| Early-stage opportunity | What must be validated before the opportunity can advance responsibly? |